Photo – AFP
This Political & Conflict Economy Tracker No. 2 (2026 Series) was published on February 6, 2026, as an English translation of the original Burmese version released on January 26, 2026.
▪️Period
January 2026
▪️Regions
Karen State
▪️Issues
On January 1, 2026, the Karen Border Guard Force (BGF) rebranded itself as the Karen National Army (KNA). In Karen State’s Hlaingbwe and Shwe Kokko Myaing areas, State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) troops stationed alongside BGF units also withdrew, leaving those positions under KNA control. The SSPC then instructed KNA forces to withdraw from Myawaddy by January 25th. The SSPC has also been preparing to respond should fighting break out.
▪️Groups Involved
KNA and SSPC
▪️Status/Development
The rebranding of the Karen BGF as the KNA remains muddled. Of the four brigades, only two have joined the shift; the other two continue to operate as BGF units. However, the KNA has tightened control in locations vital to Myanmar–Thailand border trade. Without the KNA muscle, the SSPC may struggle to hold Myawaddy—a crucial point for cross-border commerce. For now, Myawaddy town and the main border trade post appear to be under a form of shared control between the SSPC and the KNA. KNA troops are deployed along the routes leading to the Myawaddy checkpoint. The Htawtkawkoe and Kyat Ou Taung routes—now used as substitutes for the shuttered stretch of the No. 1 Asian Highway—are also jointly controlled by the KNA and other Karen armed groups.
▪️Implications
As crackdowns on Kyar Phyant online scam networks widen, the KNA’s changes became a notable inflection point in Karen State’s increasingly entangled conflict economy. It has also affected the SSPC’s ability to project control over border trade. This change may further delay the reopening of the Myawaddy border trade station. Meanwhile, the SSPC launched airstrikes and drone attacks on KNA positions in Hlaingbwe Township, suggesting the military pressure against the KNA will continue.


Political & Conflict Economy Tracker
Karen State’s Conflict Economy and KNA’s Rebranding
