Photo – AFP
This Stakeholder Tracker No. 4 (2026 Series) was published on August 4, 2026, as an English translation of the original Burmese version released on July 31, 2026.
▪️Period
April 2025 to July 30, 2026.
▪️Stakeholders
The Min Aung Hlaing Administration, the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF), and Resistance Forces.
▪️Issues/activity
On June 20, 2026, the MAF recaptured Khampat, a vital hub for India–Myanmar border trade. This brings the total number of towns retaken by the MAF during the first half of 2026 to eight, amid ongoing nationwide counter-offensives.
▪️Status/trends
Since the 2021 coup, the MAF has lost control of 101 towns in armed conflict. However, it has since recaptured 22 towns from resistance forces— four in 2024, 10 in 2025, and eight in the first half of 2026. While these territorial gains are geographically modest, they constitute strategic corridors vital for arms logistics and troop deployment.
▪️Implications
By regaining control over key strategic locations, the MAF threatens to sever contiguous resistance territories and disrupt supply routes, undermining resistance forces’ operational mobility and territorial control. Under Min Aung Hlaing’s presidency, the MAF has prioritized operations to retake areas hosting foreign investment projects. Armed clashes are therefore poised to intensify in resistance-held territories with significant foreign investments and resource extraction operations.
▪️Relevance
As highlighted in ISP-Myanmar’s The State of Myanmar report, the MAF is leveraging strategic realignment to accelerate counter-offensives and reclaim lost territory. Simultaneously, it is enticing People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) to “return to the fold” while attempting to isolate ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), coercing them toward bilateral ceasefire tracks. These maneuvers offer a critical gauge of how pre-negotiation positions may take shape ahead of prospective ceasefire arrangements.
ISP Stakeholder Tracker
MAF’s Offensives Expand into FDI Territories