Survey

Facing the Tailspin, the Country Shall Fall Upside Down

The survey, which spanned 110 townships and involved 1,000 participants, sought to gauge public sentiment on the law's chaotic effects and broader repercussions.
By ISP Admin | September 10, 2024


The original Burmese version of “Facing the Tailspin, the Country Shall Fall Upside Down” (Post-Conscription Law Survey Findings) was published on September 3, 2024, followed by its English translation on September 9, 2024. The Burmese title, “နိုင်ငံကျွမ်းဆောက်၊ ပြည်ကြာလျှင် မှောက်ကရော့မယ်,” is derived from a line in the play Wizaya by the renowned Burmese poet Salay U Pon Nya.

Reference: Htwe, T. (1991). ဦးပုည၏ စာပန်းကုံးများ [U Pon Nya’s literary works]. Yangon: News and Magazine.


Facing the Tailspin, the Country Shall Fall Upside Down



Survey Brief


ISP-Myanmar conducted a survey studying the socioeconomic impacts encountered by the public between April and June 2024 following the State Administration Council’s (SAC) enactment of the Conscription Law. The survey, which spanned 110 townships and involved 1,000 participants, sought to gauge public sentiment on the law’s chaotic effects and broader repercussions.

The results reveal that access to basic food remains a critical issue for many, with soaring market prices, inflation, and unemployment forcing lower-income households to reduce their food intake by as much as one meal per day. Despite enrollment in SAC-run schools, respondents deeply mistrust the SAC’s education system. The Conscription Law has also led to increased bribery of SAC officials and higher enrollment in SAC universities to evade conscription.

While crime reporting to SAC ward offices is common among respondents, the ineffectiveness of these offices often leads many to seek resolutions through informal negotiations or on their own. In ethnic regions, local ethnic armed organizations and religious leaders are often relied upon for conflict resolution, while domestic violence cases are similarly handled through community-based negotiations. Humanitarian aid remains sparse, and during natural disasters, individuals frequently turn to local social welfare groups for support.

These findings, though preliminary, underscore the need for further investigation. ISP-Myanmar presented similar insights on July 14, 2024, during the talk show “30 Minutes with the ISP,” in an episode titled “Breathless in Adversity: The Strangling Effect of Conscription Law on Socioeconomic Hardship.” The survey report should be considered alongside the data presented in the talk show for a comprehensive understanding. Detailed survey methodology is outlined in Appendix 1.



∎ The Conscription Law and its Pandemoniac Consequences

Among the 1,000 respondents surveyed across 110 townships in Myanmar, 64 respondents (six percent) reported that individuals from their community, including family and relatives, had been recruited under the Conscription Law. In contrast, 936 respondents (94 percent) indicated that there had been no such recruitment in their area.


The SAC announced that 14 million people (6.3 million males and 7.7 million females) are eligible to be called to serve in the military. This figure constitutes over 27 percent of Myanmar’s total population of over 51 million. The SAC summoned the first batch of 5,000 recruits in April 2024. They intend to enlist recruits every month, aiming for a yearly recruitment of 60,000 troops. Thus, 0.4 percent of the population is eligible per month and 0.43 percent per year. Among 1,000 survey respondents, 64 (six percent) reported that their family and relatives had been conscripted under the law.


In the survey, 64 respondents reported that conscription had occurred in their family and relatives. Among them, 40 respondents (65 percent) indicated that at least “one person” had been recruited. Additionally, 15 respondents (24 percent) mentioned that “two persons” had been recruited, while seven (11 percent) reported that three to five persons had been recruited. Two inappropriate responses were recorded for this question and were therefore excluded from the analysis.

When asked about the broader impact of the Conscription Law on themselves and their households, 414 respondents (41 percent) reported “no impact.” In contrast, 258 respondents (26 percent) cited a “decrease in family income.” To avoid conscription, 171 respondents (17 percent) resorted to “bribing authorities,” while 151 (15 percent) chose “re-enrolling in SAC-administered universities and schools.” Additionally, 107 respondents (11 percent) reported “legally migrating to a foreign country.”


For Question No. 3, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers.


For Question No. 5, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers.


In our further questioning of 107 respondents about the primary reason for them legally migrating to a foreign country due to the Conscription Law, 88 respondents (82 percent) answered that the reason was “to work or seek employment.” Meanwhile, 65 respondents (61 percent) stated that they migrated by “personal savings” while 56 (52 percent) borrowed money (selected “borrowed from others”). Some respondents also selected “pawning properties” and “selling lands” as options.

When asked about the level of security concerns for themselves or family members, 424 respondents (42 percent) selected “concerning” and 260 (26 percent) selected “neutral.” On the other hand, 199 respondents (20 percent) answered “very concerning,” while 78 respondents (eight percent) and 34 respondents (three percent) respectively answered “not concerning” and “not concerning at all.”


∎ Basic Food Accessibility: Challenges and Solutions

Across 110 townships in Myanmar, 1,000 respondents were asked about their experiences purchasing essential food items from April 2024 to June 2024. The results revealed that 396 respondents (40 percent) found it challenging to buy essential foodstuffs, while 604 respondents (60 percent) did not encounter such difficulties.



For Question No. 8, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers.

In the survey of 1,000 participants, 396 respondents encountered challenges in purchasing essential food items. Among them, 223 (56 percent) cited the difficulties primarily as a “shortage of goods.” To cope with these challenges, 222 respondents (56 percent) shifted to “consuming lower-cost foods than usual.” Additional strategies included “receiving financial support from friends and family” and “eating one less meal a day.”


For Question No. 9, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers.

∎ Basic Education System and Public Trust

The survey also asked 1,000 respondents from 110 townships about the current state of education in their local wards and village tracts. In response to the question, “Are students attending basic education schools administered by the SAC?” 860 respondents (86 percent) answered “yes.” Meanwhile, when asked, “Are students attending basic education schools administered by the NUG?” 191 respondents (19.1 percent) responded “yes.” Respondents also selected private and monastic schools as an answer. Only a minority of respondents selected schools run by local and international civil society organizations. Additionally, the survey assessed the respondents’ trust in the education system provided by these basic education schools.






Concerning the perceived trustworthiness of education systems administered by various organizations, 450 respondents (45 percent) answered that they did not trust the SAC’s basic education system. Meanwhile, 200 respondents (20 percent) answered that it was trustworthy. Most respondents answered that they were uncertain about the trustworthiness of basic education system of the NUG, local and international CSOs, community schools and monastic schools. Meanwhile, 485 respondents (48.5 percent) answered that private schools’ basic education system was trustworthy.


∎ Criminal Incidents and Dispute Mechanisms

Among the 1,000 survey respondents, 458 (46 percent) reported disputes between community members and criminal activities to SAC’s ward offices and police departments. In contrast, 434 respondents (43 percent) indicated that cases were handled by individuals themselves. Additionally, 181 respondents (18 percent) stated that they do not report incidents to anyone, while another 173 respondents (17 percent) claimed there were no crimes. Furthermore, 97 respondents (10 percent) reported incidents to religious leaders.


For Question No. 22, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers.








When assessing the effectiveness of various administrations at resolving disputes and addressing criminal activities, 176 out of the 458 respondents (38 percent) who answered they report “to SAC ward administrations and police stations” answered that it was “slightly effective.” Among those who reported incidents “to the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF),” 34 out of 90 respondents (38 percent) felt that these reports were “effective to some extent.”

For those who reported “to religious leaders,” 43 out of 97 respondents (44 percent) believed their reports were “effective to some extent.” Additionally, of the 30 respondents who reported “to local resistance forces not under the NUG’s command,” 20 (67 percent) found this “effective to some extent.” Similarly, 31 out of 54 respondents indicated that reporting “to the NUG, PDFs and their administration” was “effective to some extent.” Regarding reports “to EAOs and their administration,” 33 out of 79 respondents (42 percent) felt the reports were “effective to some extent,” while 27 respondents (34 percent) considered them “very effective.”


∎ Challenges and Solutions in Addressing Domestic Violence Against Women

From April 2024 to June 2024, 287 respondents (29 percent) out of the 1,000 surveyed reported that there were cases of domestic violence against women, while 643 respondents (64 percent) answered that there were no cases. Over six percent of respondents reported that they did not know.




From April to June 2024, 287 respondents reported they have heard of domestic violence cases in their communities. When asked about the frequency of these incidents, 190 respondents (66 percent) indicated they occurred “sometimes,” while 82 respondents (29 percent) reported that they happened “often.” Additionally, 11 respondents (four percent) stated that such incidents occurred “all the time.” When further questioned about where women victims report these incidents for resolution, most respondents indicated that the issues were “resolved within the household or community.” There were also cases where victims remained silent and “did not report to any organization” or authority.


For Question No. 32, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers. While the options also included “Local resistance forces not under the NUG’s command” and “Prefer not to answer,” no respondents chose these answers.

Most women, who were victims of domestic violence, chose to remain silent or resolve within the household or community, but some reported the incidents to relevant organizations. Notably, 82 respondents indicated that victims reported to SAC ward offices and police stations, while 30 mentioned that reports were made to religious leaders. Respondents also noted that victims approached EAOs and their administrations, CSOs and community groups, NUG administrations and PDFs administrations.

When assessing the effectiveness of these reports, 33 out of 82 respondents (40 percent) stated that reporting to SAC ward offices and police stations was “slightly effective.” In contrast, 30 respondents (37 percent) believed it was “effective to some extent.”

Among the eight respondents who indicated that victims reported incidents to the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF), only four felt this approach was “effective to some extent.” Of the 30 respondents who mentioned that victims approached religious leaders, 18 (60 percent) believed it was “slightly effective,” while seven (23 percent) thought it was “effective to some extent.” Regarding reports to civil society organizations (CSOs) and humanitarian groups, seven out of 10 respondents (70 percent) considered it “effective to some extent.” For those who indicated that victims reached out to the NUG, PDFs and their administrations, three out of six respondents found it “effective to some extent.” In terms of reporting to EAOs and their administrations, four out of 16 respondents (25 percent) felt it was “not effective,” while nine (56 percent) believed it was “effective to some extent.”

Question No. 37 inquired, “How effective was it for women to report cases of domestic violence to local resistance forces not under the NUG’s command?” but none of the respondents provided an answer to this question.








∎ Resource Extraction, Natural Disasters and Relief Efforts


For Question No. 40, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers.

Among the 1,000 respondents surveyed, 446 (45 percent) identified “overheating” as an environmental impact of logging and resource mining in their area. Additionally, 340 respondents (34 percent) mentioned “increased deforestation,” while 229 (23 percent) reported “flooding” as a consequence. Similarly, 226 respondents (23 percent) indicated that “damage to agricultural land and farming operations” resulted from these activities. Meanwhile, 203 respondents (20 percent) cited “drought” as an impact, 186 (19 percent) pointed to “air pollution” and 134 (13 percent) mentioned “landslides.” Notably, 422 respondents (42 percent) stated there was “no logging or resource mining” activity in their area.



Of the 1,000 survey respondents, 299 (30 percent) reported experiencing natural disasters from April to June 2024, while 701 (70 percent) did not. Among those who faced natural disasters, 132 respondents (44 percent) indicated that community welfare groups primarily assisted. Meanwhile, 121 respondents (41 percent) reported that no organizations offered any help, and 46 respondents (15 percent) mentioned that the SAC’s police departments and fire departments provided support.


For Question No. 42, respondents were allowed to select multiple answers.

Appendix-1


Methodology


Starting May 2023, ISP-Myanmar began collecting monthly socioeconomic data through the Research Network program, covering 110 of Myanmar’s 330 townships – about one-third of the total. Among these, 75 district townships were prioritized due to their administrative significance and the presence of general provision departments, which provided more accessible data. The remaining 35 townships were selected based on population density and economic importance. The selected townships span all states and regions, including the Naypyitaw Union Territory.

As part of its Research Network program, ISP-Myanmar conducted this survey deployment from July 1 to 20, 2024. The survey aims to better understand Myanmar’s socioeconomic conditions following the SAC’s enactment of the Conscription Law between April to June 2024. The first phase involved pre-survey preparations and survey design, during which the survey objectives were clearly defined. Three main objectives were established: (1) to analyze the socioeconomic impact on the population resulting from the Conscription Law, (2) to compare and assess these socioeconomic changes using monthly data collected from 110 townships and (3) to explore how people are coping with current daily socioeconomic challenges. With these objectives established, the survey questions were developed together with the People’s Alliance for Credible Elections (PACE). The survey consisted of 42 questions, focusing primarily on the impact of the Conscription Law and additional issues such as challenges in accessing basic food, incidents of domestic violence, impact on basic education, natural resource extraction, responses to natural disasters and the role of township administrations in these contexts.




ISP-Myanmar routinely collects monthly socioeconomic data across 110 townships, wards and village tracts. However, due to limitations and challenges in data collection, this particular survey was exclusively conducted among residents of wards and village only.

The survey employed a quantitative research methodology. A sampling frame was established, targeting a total of 1,100 participants, with 10 local residents surveyed in each of the 110 townships. However, due to challenges such as political and military conflicts, displacement from war and natural disasters like flooding, the survey reached only 1,000 participants. These circumstances also caused delays in the survey process. Since purposive sampling was employed, specific criteria were established to select survey participants. These criteria included (1) selecting 10 local residents from each township, (2) ensuring at least five female participants from each township, (3) ensuring that the 10 local residents represented at least five different wards or village tracts, or surveying different ward residents if a township had no village tracts and (4) including only participants aged 18 to 60 years.

Data collectors employed various methods – including phone calls, internet communications and in-person interviews – to engage and survey respondents. The data collection strictly follows ISP-Myanmar’s security protocols. Protecting personal information was a top priority throughout the process, ensuring that all respondents’ data was safeguarded at the highest level and through collaboration with group leaders. Additionally, measures were taken to ensure anonymity and privacy, with respondents made aware of the conditions and protocols and received consents from them. After the data was collected, it was securely stored, adhering to the organizational and policies and data security guidelines.




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