Three Critical Points to Consider

∎ KEY TAKEAWAY

Myanmar, despite only encountering the tail end of Typhoon Yagi, tragically saw higher fatalities than Vietnam, which bore the full brunt of the typhoon. According to State Administration Council (SAC) reports, the death toll reached 433 people. This disaster was deadlier and more severe than the 2015 flooding incident, previously considered the second-largest natural disaster in Myanmar since Cyclone Nargis in 2008.

While many nations are susceptible to the impacts of El Niño and La Niña, Myanmar is facing some of the worst effects. In the summer of 2024, Myanmar had three cities ranked among the top 15 hottest cities globally. When the 2024 monsoon season returned, areas along the Ayeyarwady and Chindwin rivers suffered severely from the first round of floods. The second major flood of 2024, caused by Typhoon Yagi, brought unexpected landslides and heavy flooding to highland areas. From July 1 to September 30, 2024, over 5.7 million people were affected by the flooding, and more than ten million acres (41,500 square kilometers – over 6 percent of Myanmar’s total land area) were submerged.¹

The latest data places Myanmar alarmingly high on the list of nations most vulnerable to the ravages of climate change. Ranking second among 183 countries in the 2021 Global Climate Risk Index, Myanmar has confronted a particularly stark reality since the coup. ISP-Myanmar wants to highlight three pressing aspects of the escalating climate crisis that demand immediate attention.

1. Lack of Social Capital

The period since the coup has been one of the most intense in the 70-year history of civil war in Myanmar. Human resources are now being further depleted as the war voraciously consumes resources. This situation has significantly eroded Myanmar’s social capital. The prioritization of security and conflict has drained the civic space, undermining community resilience. Many young people have been drawn into the conflict, and many are frantically fleeing due to fears of the SAC’s conscription laws. The SAC is tightening its grip on community organizations, restricting their scope and activities, and fraying the socioeconomic fabric. Much like beekeeping, social capital must be carefully cultivated and cannot be instantly activated like flipping a switch on a machine.

On the other hand, Myanmar finds itself increasingly ostracized under the SAC’s rule. With international backing waning and alliances dwindling, resources have grown scarcer due to sanctions and policies designed to penalize the junta.

2. Underestimating Climate Change

During the two terms of quasi-civilian governments of Myanmar’s democratic transition, many scholars have repeatedly warned about the climate threats facing the country. Climate change and Myanmar’s climate vulnerability have been frequently discussed and highlighted. ISP-Myanmar has also convened experts and other specialists for the Yaw Min Gyi Zayat talk show titled Climate Action: More Urgent Than Ever in 2019. The effects of climate change are so significant that they cannot be ignored, affecting various sectors and posing threats everywhere. From various perspectives, the panels discussed the need to develop a vision, strategy, policy, and new practices emphasizing climate crises’ impact. When Cyclone Mocha hit the country in 2023, ISP-Myanmar also published an On Point analysis titled Cyclone Mocha and Return of El Niño: a crisis of climate-conflict-humanitarian triple nexus in Myanmar.

The analysis discussed three key points: (1) the risks of natural disasters and the deterioration of Myanmar society’s resilience, (2) the potential of conflict landscape shifts due to natural disasters, and (3) massive migration driven by climate crises threatens to disrupt social cohesion between local populations and new migrants, intensifying competition for resources and igniting new ethnic tensions. Additionally, the article emphasizes the need for collective efforts to find new ways to address the interconnected crises of climate change, conflict, and social distress.

However, until now, key stakeholders still do not regard climate change as a serious crisis. Leaders and influential figures in various sectors continue to prioritize political storms over environmental storms. Such thinking cannot be wholly dismissed as wrong. Myanmar remains a democracy-deficient state ruled by authoritarian power. A responsive and effective governance model that caters to the public’s needs cannot flourish in such authoritarian systems. Simultaneously, various factions indiscriminately extract resources to drive the war machinery without considering the consequences. They remain deaf to environmental calls. Consequently, Myanmar is on course to become an uninhabitable wasteland where natural disasters will be neither selective nor sparing.

Amid Myanmar’s acute conflict, some advocate for the indiscriminate bombing, believing it to be acceptable as long as land remains—a profoundly disastrous narrative. Bombing over cities, towns, and villages rendered them uninhabitable. The heavy emphasis on military means severely devastates public and civilian infrastructures: buildings are reduced to ashes, and trade arteries are clamped shut. This extremism exacerbates the already dire poverty of Myanmar’s grassroots populace.

At the same time, successive military regimes have shown a troubling track record of myopia in addressing the impacts of natural disasters. This short-sightedness has been especially evident during major crises like Cyclone Nargis in 2008 and Cyclone Mocha in 2023, where the regime’s restrictive approach significantly constrained international aid and domestic initiatives. Notably, there was a pronounced suspicion towards international organizations and foreign governments who were trying to help. Additionally, the regime could follow the practices of other authoritarian regimes worldwide: either aim to smoothen the facilitation of international aid to selectively divert resources to benefit specific factions or block international aid entirely. The junta selectively aids only a fraction of the affected population that supports them politically, weaponizing the disaster for their own gain. They often exploit the crises politically, pretending to be capable of resolving them while intentionally creating severe humanitarian crises.

3. Champions From the Crisis

Whenever crises arise, heroes often emerge from the turmoil. During Cyclone Nargis in 2008, under the junta regime, religious leaders, local community organizations, and humanitarian volunteers braved the authorities’ obstructions to provide essential aid. According to ISP-Myanmar’s Research Network studies, only local ad hoc disaster relief groups and volunteer organizations continue to deliver assistance currently.²

From March to August 2024, ISP-Myanmar researched socioeconomic conditions across 110 townships. Among these, 48 townships experienced extreme heat, while 37 faced heavy and frequent rainfall. Additionally, 45 townships suffered from flooding. Regarding the question of who responds to disaster relief, local ad hoc disaster relief groups are the most common entities in many townships, assisting in rehabilitating their communities. Volunteer groups were seen as the second most active, while the third most common answer was ‘no group came for help’. The capabilities of civil society organizations and the assistance provided by the junta’s Ministry of Social Welfare, Relief, and Resettlement were markedly inadequate.

In this critical situation, some celebrities, online influencers, and wealthy business owners are stepping up to support the victims of climate-related disasters by directly bypassing the SAC channels. They are donating and helping on their own terms. Regardless of who donates or how they contribute, acts of generosity benefit society and promote compassion. Yet, when these efforts are politicized through a narrow, dogmatic division lens, they deepen the suffering of already vulnerable communities. Such an approach offers no real assistance, serving only to fuel hatred without accountability.

In the face of unprecedented climate crises, the country needs everyday champions far more than those who spread propaganda and hate. What’s needed are people who can genuinely help rebuild the lives of those affected. The crisis is worsened by rising poverty, a case of “when it rains, it pours.” People already overwhelmed by multiple hardships lack the strength to rebuild. External aid is scarce, and the shortage of resources hinders sustainable recovery efforts, from early warning systems to emergency response strategies. It is, regrettably, an almost impossible situation.

In essence, conflict and climate crises feed off each other, like adding fuel to a fire. The war economy, particularly through the exploitation of natural resources, worsens the climate crisis. Meanwhile, resource scarcity from climate-related disasters emboldens armed groups and fuels predatory, warlord-like behaviors. As conflict and climate crises converge, more people are displaced, and the grassroots face the dire threat of starvation. Human security has reached a precarious peak. Not only is societal resilience weakening, but the capacity for conflict resolution is also eroding. Faced with the twin terror of war and environmental catastrophe, communities must rally behind emerging everyday champions rather than succumb to those who promote an ideological driven utopian vision with egocentric attitude.

¹ This description is provided by the UN Satellite Centre (UNOSAT) and the Myanmar Information Management Unit (MIMU), which jointly operate the UNOSAT S-1 FloodAI Monitoring Dashboard.

² Since May 2023, ISP-Myanmar has been using an observational method to collect data from 110 townships—one-third of the 330 total townships in Myanmar—to analyze the socioeconomic situation. This includes 75 district townships, with the remaining 35 chosen based on their large population size and economic significance.