Public Resilience, Nation’s Capability, and Humanitarian Diplomacy

The Terror Twins of Climate and Conflict

∎ TRENDS TO WATCH

Public resilience is often discussed, especially when natural disasters like cyclones and floods were encountered. Robust resilience can enhance mutual support and improve recovery capabilities. On the other hand, the resilience of the populace is seen in the research literature as indicative of the nation’s overall capacity, often linked to political institutions.

Political institutions significantly impact the response to crises. Specifically, robust political institutions greatly influence state capacity, which can enhance capabilities such as (1) informational capabilities, (2) decision-making and implementation capabilities, (3) enforcement capabilities, and (4) public mobilization and coordination capabilities.

Currently, Myanmar is encountering a catastrophic crisis in addition to the civil war as a sequel of the coup. Consequently, political institutions are facing these natural disasters at their most feeble state. Additionally, Myanmar, under the SAC’s rule, is grappling with international isolation and sanctions due to human rights violation records. This analysis aims to discuss how Myanmar can most effectively garner international aid for rescue and rehabilitation efforts and how humanitarian diplomacy can be expanded in this context. The focus is on exploring viable strategies for recovery efforts.

Myanmar is no stranger to major natural disasters. The devastating impact of Cyclone Nargis in 2008 resulted in over 130,000 fatalities and property damages exceeding USD 12 billion. The former military regime initially restricted international access, citing security concerns. However, interventions by ASEAN and establishing the Tripartite Core Group (TCG), which includes UN agencies, gained access to assess the disaster’s impact and facilitated rehabilitation aid.

The monsoon floods in 2015 were particularly severe. Back then, international collaborations were strengthened due to the quasi-civilian government’s leadership, increased transparency, and stable diplomatic landscape. The floods and landslides from July to August 2015 impacted 12 out of 14 regions and states in Myanmar, leading to 132 deaths. The floods affected approximately 5.2 million people in 40 townships, causing an estimated USD 1.51 billion in damages, equivalent to 3.1 percent of Myanmar’s GDP for the fiscal year 2014-2015. The government mobilized extensive rescue operations and hosted international donor conferences for rehabilitation efforts. To assess the rehabilitation needs, former Vice-President Nyan Tun led ministries, Myanmar scholars, and international organizations in conducting a Post-Flood and Landslides Needs Assessment (PFLNA). Substantial efforts were made to secure commitments for international aid.

Cyclone Mocha’s destruction in 2023 was also severe. As the cyclone struck in the aftermath of the coup, the junta mostly focused on security concerns and, as a result, international aid and domestic humanitarian relief efforts were closely monitored and restricted. Although early warnings helped limit the casualties, the impacts of the cyclone were felt by over 5.4 million people across various regions in Myanmar. The country sought disaster relief, particularly from neighboring countries and the ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Centre), which also coordinated the assessment of the disaster’s impacts.

The floods and landslides in 2024 were exceptionally disastrous. The saying of “the strength of the nation lies within” is largely inadequate. It is crucial to prioritize people over political conflict. There is a pressing need to broaden the scope of humanitarian diplomacy to facilitate international assistance. Once again, it is evident that neighboring countries, among others, will offer assistance through the AHA, despite existing limitations. However, politics plays a crucial role in fostering mutual understanding and compassion among nations facing similar challenges, from assessing the impact of disasters to mobilizing an international donor conference for aid. It’s time for empathy and humanity to triumph over hatred, conflict, and war. It is vital to closely monitor the state’s capacity and the cleverness of humanitarian diplomacy in the post-disaster period.