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El Niño to La Niña Time to Draft a Disaster Communication Playbook

El Niño, a significant climate phenomenon that reshapes Myanmar and global weather patterns, is transitioning to La Niña.
By ISP Admin | October 29, 2024

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As Myanmar faces escalating climate disasters and flooding, concerns are growing over the rampant spread of rumors, disinformation, and misinformation. Some of this misinformation is intentionally seeded on social media to instill fear and confusion among the population. Without verifying these snippets, many impulsive sharers on social media unwittingly amplify falsehoods through their networks, intensifying the public’s distress. Although, some of them may insidiously share misinformation as well. Given these circumstances, an effective and systematic disaster communication plan for climate-related crises is urgently needed.

Myanmar is ranked as the second most vulnerable nation in the global climate disaster indices, demanding vigilant monitoring. El Niño, a significant climate phenomenon that reshapes local and global weather patterns, is transitioning to La Niña. Both El Niño and La Niña profoundly impact global and regional climates by inducing natural changes in wind patterns, ocean currents, and temperatures. However, the overarching concern is that climate change exacerbates these fluctuations, resulting in prolonged and irregular weather events. Last year, Cyclone Mocha struck Myanmar during the developing stage of an El Niño and caused widespread devastation in Rakhine and other parts of Myanmar. Currently, meteorologists are observing a shift toward colder La Niña conditions.

El Niño, marked by warmer-than-average temperatures, has spurred heavy rainfall and floods in some regions while instigating droughts in others. The transition to La Niña ushers in cooler temperatures and amplified trade winds, heralding a drop in global temperatures. This climatic shift presages drought in South America, southern Africa, and the southern United States, whereas the Atlantic is braced for heightened hurricane activity. Eastern Africa anticipates floods, with the south facing droughts. In Asia, nations like Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Thailand are poised for increased flooding.

Meanwhile, Europe and North America brace for a colder climate, paralleled by heavy rainfall, flood and colder conditions in Australia. El Niño’s influence began to wane in June and completely withdrew from the northern hemisphere in September. Now, La Niña is making its presence felt across the region from September to November, with expectations of continuing until January to March 2025. With this in mind, let’s turn to managing severe and persistent climate crises. Disaster management is usually approached through a four-step strategy. This strategy includes 1) prevention, 2) preparation, 3) crisis response, and 4) emergency recovery efforts. Myanmar also has a disaster management plan that extends from the national framework to the township to community level planning and committees to cope with natural disasters. These systems are codified in legal frameworks on how to govern responses to natural disasters. However, there seem to be deficiencies in disaster communications. The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology website (https://www.moezala.gov.mm/my) is comprehensive and has detailed alerts on storms, rising river levels, and imminent flash floods. Nonetheless, the effectiveness of this online resource relies heavily on the level of its public engagement and trust.



Tulane University’s School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine suggested methods for effective disaster communications in an article. It emphasizes the importance of a dual approach—being both proactive and reactive—to manage communications during the climate crisis efficiently. Rapid dissemination of information is crucial, but equally important is building trust, combating disinformation and misinformation, and ensuring the public remains well-informed.

Tulane University’s article discussed eight steps to developing a successful disaster communication plan. This plan includes

In Myanmar, private banks perpetually peddle trivial SMS messages to bank users, yet no SMS alerts were received about the flooding. It is also essential to utilize alternative communication channels, including phone calls, television alerts, emergency hotlines, radio broadcasts, social media updates, and roadside signs. Neighboring countries employ FM radios as a vital lifeline, broadcasting crucial disaster-related information to a broad audience. Yet, in Myanmar, the grip of stringent control suffocates free flow of information. The SAC blocks major social media outlets, such as Facebook, forcing citizens to scramble through Virtual Private Networks (VPNs). This excessive prioritization of security over accessibility cripples the efficacy of disaster response efforts. To break away from this gridlock, Myanmar urgently requires creative strategies to combat rumors, disinformation, misinformation, and forge a robust, trustworthy disaster communication network.



What ISP Is Reading

El Niño to La Niña Time to Draft a Disaster Communication Playbook





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