Iran War Impact on Myanmar Opens Up Opportunity for India

Photo – AFP

West Asia, a cauldron of conflicts, is burning violently. As war wages on after the February 28 assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a joint US-Israeli raid, its impact has sparked global repercussions. Following energy disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which affected nearly 20 percent of global oil and LNG supply, Myanmar is also in distress. Even though the World Bank noted signs of a moderate recovery in late 2025, continued contraction in the overall economy, together with the West Asian crisis, further destabilized Southeast Asia’s weakest economy¹. Fuel shortages triggered strict rationing and transport disruptions, severely affecting businesses and humanitarian operations in the conflict-ridden country². According to Gwyn Lewis, the interim United Nations Resident and Humanitarian Coordinator in Myanmar, such disruptions are placing enormous stress on an economy already under pressure. “Prices are rising, essential goods are harder to find, and the purchasing power of families continues to fall,” she asserted with great concern³.

Apart from this, the Iran conflagration has a profound effect on Myanmar’s civil war, likely altering the junta’s strategic advantage accrued over the past few months. Air dominance enabled the junta to regain lost ground against resistance groups through increased airstrikes and drone support, with fuel shipments from West Asia playing a critical role. Now that the supply line is severely choked, the trajectory of the civil war is shifting profoundly toward a broader and more intense confrontation.

A Reuters investigation found that Iran has delivered around 175,000 tons of jet fuel to Myanmar since late 2024 to sustain its fighter jet operations, alongside huge shipments of dual-use urea for explosives manufacturing, especially precision-guided munitions and drone bombs⁴. Moreover, violating international sanctions, Myanmar’s military regime surreptitiously imported jet fuel from Iran at least three times between early December and the beginning of the war with Israel and the U.S. in late February. As of February 28, Myanmar’s Air Force had conducted 10,348 sorties, mostly on civilian targets like villages, towns, schools, hospitals, and religious sites across the country⁵. The National Unity Government (NUG)’s Human Rights Ministry data reveals an alarming figure of 4,991 people having perished in these airstrikes, including 678 kids. Besides, 6,863 civilians got injured, out of which 1,002 were children. In fact, the number of attacks on civilian targets has more than doubled, and schools, hospitals, and villages have been hit repeatedly. Last October, a school in the remote village of Vanha in Chin State was bombed, killing two students and injuring many more, which was immediately followed up by a drone strike to maximize damage⁶.

As a major oil refining hub and the world’s fourth-largest refining nation, India will look to bolster Myanmar’s limited refining capacity, as the country relies heavily on imports of refined petroleum products.

No doubt, such synchronized air campaigns gave the junta overwhelming superiority over its armed opponents, which lacked air defense and equivalent firepower. Interestingly, India also worked diligently on the junta-provided intelligence to disrupt the supply lines of resistance groups in a quid pro quo to Myanmar, not allowing any anti-India activity in its territory. The National Investigation Agency (NIA) recently arrested a group of Western contractors for using Indian soil to supply drones, jamming equipment, and providing training to ethnic armed groups targeting the junta in Myanmar’s Chin State⁷.

With shrinking logistical support from West Asia, the junta will now pivot back to its backyard in Southeast Asia for secure fuel from old suppliers like Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore, and Malaysia, while also knocking on the doors of China and Russia. Iran’s degraded capability from the Israeli-U.S. onslaught also means an interruption in drone and missile supply to the Tatmadaw. This provides a window for the now reorganized resistance groups to introduce changes in their strategy, enabling them to move away from hit-and-run guerrilla tactics and institute centrally coordinated mobile brigades with enhanced interoperability to conduct lethal sub-conventional operations. They have already formed a new umbrella group – the Spring Revolution Alliance to remove mistrust and improve coordination among the NUG and resistance groups formed after the coup and operating out of the NUG’s command⁸. Moreover, the Steering Council for the Emergence of a Federal Democratic Union (SCEF), a new coalition between the NUG and key Ethnic Armed Organizations, was formed in late March 2026 to advance the armed resistance⁹. But real success lies in spreading the five-year-old war waged across the country’s rice paddies and hills to urban centers where the junta is strongly anchored.

For India, which already exports diesel and other petroleum products, a vulnerable Myanmar presents lucrative opportunities in the oil sector¹⁰. As a major oil refining hub and the world’s fourth-largest refining nation, India will look to bolster Myanmar’s limited refining capacity, as the country relies heavily on imports of refined petroleum products. Moreover, India can also share its upstream expertise to ensure that Myanmar’s oil reserves, however low, are fully exploited. So, India must tactfully balance its relationships with actors on both sides of the fence in these tumultuous times to secure a robust presence, alongside China, in Myanmar’s energy infrastructure.

Seema Sengupta is a Kolkata-based journalist and columnist.

[The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the policies or positions of ISP-Myanmar. Readers wishing to share reflections or offer counterarguments are welcome to write and submit a rebuttal article.]

Citations: