Myanmar’s Controversial General Election – an Indian Perspective

Photo – AFP

On December 28, voters in government-controlled areas of civil-war-ravaged Myanmar cast their ballots in the first and second phases of a three-phase general election, held respectively on December 28, 2025, and January 11, 2026¹. However, the long-awaited poll is not expected to bring about any tangible change on the ground, particularly in peace, democracy, and human rights. At best, the world can expect a nominally civilian government with the Tatmadaw retaining remote control over policy decisions. Critics say this democratic exercise is designed to add a facade of legitimacy to the ongoing military rule that began after the military ousted Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in February 2021. The UN fears this election will further reinforce repression and instability². There have been widespread arrests, with the junta accusing detainees of attempting to sabotage the election³. A new law, enacted in July last year, stipulates three to ten years imprisonment for those who speak, organize, incite, protest, or distribute letters to disrupt any part of the electoral process, while other offenses carry sentences up to the death penalty⁴. Worse still, thousands of resistance protestors and politicians, including former President Win Myint and State Counsellor Suu Kyi, remain in detention to date. Against this backdrop, India has endorsed free, fair, and inclusive polls in Myanmar while underscoring the participation of all political stakeholders. The Foreign Ministry spokesperson took great pains to explain New Delhi’s unwavering commitment to the democratic transition in Myanmar, so that normalcy can return at the earliest⁵.

In today’s Myanmar, all the levers of the government and the major population centres are under military control. Hence, a guaranteed outcome of the ongoing election is a victory for the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP), as reflected in the first-phase result⁶. In fact, USDP is the junta in civilian clothing, functioning as a strategic instrument within a multi-party set-up where the military retains ultimate power through constitutional guarantees. Sensing this, India has allowed two individuals – retired Army Commander Lieutenant General Arun Kumar Sahni and strategic affairs commentator Atul Aneja – to be part of the international poll observer team. They do not hold any official status but were given a warm welcome at Naypyidaw airport by the Union Election Commission⁷. Apart from this, India remains ambivalent on the issue of recognising the election result despite fervent appeal from representatives of Myanmar’s different ethnic and 113 anti-coup resistance groups to shun the junta-run polls⁸. Another interesting development that coincided with Myanmar’s election was the presence of anti-junta resistance groups from Karenni and Rakhine States in the Indian capital, perhaps as an atonement for ditching ethnic resistance groups in 1998 – in the infamous Operation Leech – which foiled the first ever serious attempt to form a Rakhine nationalist resistance against the military junta. A day after Myanmar went to the polls, representatives of resistance groups attending a Think Tank-organised event in New Delhi expressed dissatisfaction with India’s response toward making the election truly inclusive⁹.

Another interesting development that coincided with Myanmar’s election was the presence of anti-junta resistance groups from Karenni and Rakhine States in the Indian capital, perhaps as an atonement for ditching ethnic resistance groups in 1998 – in the infamous Operation Leech – which foiled the first ever serious attempt to form a Rakhine nationalist resistance against the military junta.

India and Myanmar share deep-rooted people-to-people connections anchored in centuries-old ethno-cultural heritage. But the 70,000 people who fled junta terror and sought refuge in India since the 2021 coup faced harassment. Sadly, India has not only deported Myanmar refugees directly into the hands of the junta, but it has also provided lethal armaments¹⁰. Amid accusations of New Delhi aiding and abetting the junta’s atrocities on its own people, India’s Ambassador to Myanmar met the junta’s third most influential authority, General Kyaw Swar Lin, and discussed post-election opportunities with the military-led government days before the first phase of the election¹¹. Therefore, instead of shaking up Myanmar’s moribund democracy, is India betraying its own commitment to upholding democratic values and the rule of law in the Indo-Pacific? Surely, New Delhi’s casual side-stepping of the erosion of democracy in Myanmar will deliver a body blow to the opposition struggle. But India’s history of handling Myanmar has been inconsistent and complex, having previously supported the democratic movement and then, in 1993, changed tack to embrace the junta¹². This policy of aligning with “whoever worked in India’s interests” was not successful. Myanmar drifted away from India toward China, thus creating a strategic vacuum. It compelled New Delhi to resume courting pro-democracy stakeholders¹³. As post-election tension will likely affect India, especially the peripheral region bordering Myanmar, New Delhi must continue to strengthen its non-lethal assistance to the ethnic resistance groups and empower the pro-democracy group by way of humanitarian, educational, and medical aid without ceasing its diplomatic presence in Myanmar or engagement with the junta. As a flourishing democracy, India is expected to be the voice of the deprived and the oppressed without imposing its own values.

Seema Sengupta is a Kolkata-based journalist and columnist.

References

1. https://www.cnn.com/2025/12/27/asia/myanmar-election-civil-war-hnk-intl ↩︎
2. https://news.un.org/en/story/2025/11/1166472 ↩︎
3. https://www.gnlm.com.mm/offenders-arrested-for-attempting-to-disrupt-elections/ ↩︎
4. https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/myanmar-junta-mandates-prison-sentences-for-election-critics/article69875100.ece ↩︎
5. https://www.tribuneindia.com/news/world/india-calls-for-free-fair-and-inclusive-elections-in-myanmar-backs-transition-to-democracy/ ↩︎
6. https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/myanmar-pro-military-party-wins-first-phase-junta-run-election-official-results-5810981 ↩︎
7. https://m.economictimes.com/news/international/world-news/myanmar-holds-phase-1-of-three-phase-polls-india-sends-observer/articleshow/126223242.cms ↩︎
8. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/guwahati/dont-recognise-junta-run-polls-myanmar-groups-appeal-to-india/articleshow/126044360.cms ↩︎
9. https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/not-satisfied-with-indias-response-to-myanmar-polls-say-anti-junta-rebels/article70450555.ece ↩︎
10. https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2023/05/un-expert-exposes-1-billion-death-trade-myanmar-military ↩︎
11. https://share.google/ugNJRXHh1aa69QgdX ↩︎
12. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/329119511_India-Myanmar_Relations_From_Idealpolitik_To_Realpolitik ↩︎
13. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/india-extends-unprecedented-invite-myanmars-anti-junta-forces-sources-say-2024-09-23/ ↩︎