Photo – SSPC/Thurain
This Situation Brief No. 5(English Version) was published on November 13, 2025, as a translation of the original Burmese version published on November 12, 2025.
On October 27, 2025, the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) recaptured Hsipaw, a town previously held by the Ta’ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)—bringing the regime’s control over the Mandalay–Muse trade route to 44.4 percent. Following Operation 1027, the regime had lost about 58.3 percent—27,611 square miles (71,512 square kilometers)—of Northern Shan territory. However, it has since regained 11.3 percent of that loss.
Following China’s intervention in April 2025, the regime also regained control of Lashio, previously held by the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA). From there, it launched a series of offensives targeting TNLA-held towns, capturing Nawnghkio in June after 45 days of fighting; Kyaukme on September 30 after a 21-day assault; and Hsipaw on October 16, following a 16-day push that began on October 1. However, a stretch of the Pyidaungsu Highway connecting Hsipaw and Lashio remains under MNDAA control. The TNLA has since announced a ceasefire with the junta and agreed to withdraw from Mogok and Mongmit.
Despite the limited gains, the territories recaptured by the regime are primarily urban centers critical to Myanmar–China border trade. While the SSPC now controls the towns and urban areas, Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) continue to control the majority of the surrounding rural and mountainous areas (see ISP Mapping No. 116). The regime is attempting to restore administrative structures and public services. However, in the rural areas, both the regime and the EAOs are competing to run parallel administrations.
ISP Situation Brief
Regime Regains 11 Percent of Lost Ground in Northern Shan