Photo – AFP
Is the U.S.’s Myanmar plan falling apart? On September 27, the rebel Arakan Army’s (AA) umbrella group United League of Arakan (ULA) issued a statement, accusing the Bangladesh Border Guards of tacitly backing Rohingya militant groups – the Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) and Rohingya Solidarity Organization (RSO)1. The ULA claims Rohingya militants supported by Myanmar’s junta are conducting drone surveillance, blockading supply routes, and ambushing AA outposts. They urged Dhaka to act against errant officials while pleading with the international community to monitor the situation closely. Interestingly, it has been reported that Washington has been secretly working on a plan to launch a Bangladesh-backed clandestine operation in Myanmar2. U.S. officials quietly met AA and Chin National Front representatives in Bangladesh last April as part of a broader strategy to confront Myanmar’s military junta in Rakhine State and beyond before the December general election. The Bangladesh Army is supposed to function as an enabler, using a newly built facility near Teknaf in Cox Bazar to supply rations and operate unmanned aerial vehicles for area domination. To this end, they were making sincere efforts to convince ARSA leader Ataullah, arrested in Narayanganj near Dhaka along with nine other associates last March, to join the anti-junta coalition. In fact, Muhammad Yunus’ interim regime is already working on a list of about 80,000 Rohingya refugees for repatriation to the Rakhine State once the military objective is achieved.
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s relation with the U.S. is going through a complicated phase. The country’s bloody civil war has entered a decisive stage. Both the Tatmadaw (junta) and Myanmar’s political opposition are wooing Washington. Incidentally, the U.S. did not consider Myanmar a rogue state perpetually. Even in the midst of the military’s rise to power and proclamation of the “Burmese Way to Socialism” in the 1960s, U.S.-Myanmar bilateral relations flourished. The Union of Burma maintained neutrality and a warm relationship with Washington during Soviet and Chinese penetration of Indochina. Furthermore, the U.S. supported Myanmar’s efforts to eradicate narcotics production in the Golden Triangle by supplying the military with helicopters for crop destruction and counter-narco-insurgency operations3. In fact, the Latin American countries’ history of U.S.-welcomed coups made Myanmar’s military leadership expect similar moral backing from Washington. Learning from the past mistakes, the junta has hired two American lobbying firms, DCI Group and McKeon Group, to improve relations with the U.S4. The Trump administration is still vacillating though, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio making a solemn commitment to support Myanmar’s journey back to democracy5, while U.S. sanctions against several military-related individuals were lifted after General Min Aung Hlaing hailed President Trump as a true patriot6. For Myanmar’s political opposition, this poses a serious challenge, particularly after the liquidation of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and United States Agency for Global Media (USAGM), as these organizations bolstered their narratives.
Interestingly, it has been reported that Washington has been secretly working on a plan to launch a Bangladesh-backed clandestine operation in Myanmar. U.S. officials quietly met AA and Chin National Front representatives in Bangladesh last April as part of a broader strategy to confront Myanmar’s military junta in Rakhine State and beyond before the December general election.
Amid this development, the expanding U.S. footprint in post-Hasina Bangladesh has stirred unease in neighbouring India. A significant rise in the U.S. military activities in Bangladesh’s strategically located Chittagong area is seen with intrigue and suspicion7. Panic erupted after a U.S. Air Force strategic transport aircraft arrived in Bangladesh to participate in “Operation Pacific Angel 25-3” – a joint exercise that the Americans are involved in along with Sri Lanka and Bangladesh8. This comes just one and a half months after another joint exercise was held in Sylhet’s Jalalabad Cantonment, where Bangladesh para commandos, along with soldiers from the U.S. Army Pacific Command and the Nevada National Guard, honed their skills in counter-extremism and jungle warfare9. Questions are being raised about whether Bangladesh is being sought to be used as a logistics centre for intelligence operations to counter China, because that could adversely affect India. Any competition between the U.S. and China to exert influence over Myanmar’s myriad rebel groups and draw them into respective strategic folds will likely impact domestic insurgencies and the flow of refugees in Indian territories bordering Myanmar, thanks to the cross-border ethnic linkages. Though not overtly expressed, the geopolitical implications of the U.S. increasing its military presence in the neighbourhood are making India’s strategic establishment jittery. An active American involvement in the Bay of Bengal region will likely alter the balance of power and make India play second fiddle in its courtyard. Most importantly, countries outside South Asia can be tempted to jump into another great game, revolving around the Indian subcontinent. Besides, Washington is already accused of toppling Sheikh Hasina’s government in Bangladesh after she allegedly refused to hand over St. Martin’s Island – the coral landmass located near the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest maritime trade routes. A military base on the island would provide unparalleled oversight of the Bay of Bengal and Indian Ocean, thus enabling intense surveillance of Chinese activities in the region.
Seema Sengupta is a Kolkata-based journalist and columnist.
References
- https://www.irrawaddy.com/news/myanmars-crisis-the-world/myanmars-aa-urges-dhaka-to-probe-border-officers-backing-rohingya-militants.html ↩︎
- https://nenews.in/neighbours/nascent-plan-involving-bangladesh-army-in-clandestine-us-backed-operations-in-rakhine-state-emerges/23592/ ↩︎
- https://www.gao.gov/assets/nsiad-88-94.pdf ↩︎
- https://www.odwyerpr.com/story/public/23509/2025-08-28/myanmar-hires-mckeon-group-restore-us-ties.html ↩︎
- https://www.state.gov/burmas-thingyan-festival-and-new-year-2025 ↩︎
- https://www.independent.co.uk/asia/southeast-asia/us-sanctions-myanmar-junta-trump-b2795755.html ↩︎
- https://www.moneycontrol.com/world/us-troop-moves-in-bangladesh-s-chittagong-stir-geopolitical-storm-in-india-myanmar-report-article-13549276.html ↩︎
- https://www.daily-sun.com/post/815948 ↩︎
- https://www.daily-sun.com/post/815948 ↩︎