Who will lead the future Myanmar military, speculating from the remaining five generals?

Photo – AFP

This is a human-supervised, AI-assisted translation of the original Burmese ISP Column article by Swedaw, published on September 18, 2025.

Speculations are emerging about who will lead the Myanmar military after the 2025 election, as the coup leader will find an exit strategy and plan a successor to lead the armed forces. In particular, there are predictions about who could become the commander-in-chief from the remaining top brass. Before the National Defense and Security Council (NDSC) meeting on July 31, 2025–the highest meeting of Myanmar’s junta to reform the ruling council, the State Administration Council (SAC), and to assign top civilian and military positions– there were up to 10 generals leading Myanmar’s military. After the NDSC meeting, only five generals were left in the Myanmar Armed Forces, as others were relieved of their uniforms and assigned to civilian government roles or retired. 

The remaining five generals are: Defense Minister Gen. Maung Maung Aye (DSA-25), Chief of Military Security Affairs and Joint Executive of the State Security and Peace Commission Gen. Ye Win Oo (OTS-77), Chief of Navy Admiral Htein Win (DSA-29), Chief of Air Force Gen. Tun Aung (DSA-29), and Joint Chief of General Staff (Army, Navy, and Air Force) Gen. Kyaw Swar Lin (DSA-35). Among them, chiefs of the navy and air force are definitely not going to become the commander-in-chief of the armed forces by tradition. There was a case only former Air Force Chief Gen. Khin Aung Myint has reached the highest position of Joint Chief of General Staff (Army, Navy, and Air Force).

Therefore, we need to consider only the three army generals for the position of commander-in-chief in the Myanmar military. To examine them one by one, let’s start with Gen. Maung Maung Aye, registration number Army-17580. He is a graduate of Defense Services Academy (DSA) Intake 25 and served in key roles such as Chief of Staff of the Army and Commander of Military Operation Command No. 6 (MOC-6) based in Naypyitaw during the time when coup leader Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing was the Commander of the Naypyitaw Regional Military Command (RMC). He was a protégé of Snr Gen. Than Shwe, but during his tenure as Chief of Staff, his relationship with the commander-in-chief, Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing was strained, leading him to spend a long time as Naypyitaw Regional Commander. Later, he was assigned as Chief of Military Training. He was appointed as the Joint Chief of General Staff (Army, Navy, and Air Force) to replace Gen. Mya Tun Oo from that position, as they were from the same intake. He is also related by marriage to Gen. Ye Win Oo. In the newly formed State Security and Peace Commission, he joined as a member, and as a Defense Minister in the newly formed interim government led by PM Nyo Saw. However, regarding his age and lower level of trust compared to other generals, he is not considered likely to be promoted as the new commander-in-chief.

Because the coup leader tends to do unexpected things and prioritizes loyalty over competence, it is certain that many unexpected changes in military positions will occur before and after the elections organized by the State Security and Peace Commission.

The next general is Gen. Ye Win Oo. Gen. Ye Win Oo, registration number Army-21440, is a graduate of Officer Training School (OTS) Intake 77 (comparable to the same batch of DSA-30). During the time when the coup leader was commander of the Triangle Region Command, he served as commander of an infantry battalion under that command and had a close family relationship. He rose from commander of the Southwestern Region Command based in Pathein to Chief of Military Security Affairs. He is the first from the Military Security Affairs to become a general, and the only OTS graduate among the current senior officers in the Myanmar military who holds the rank of general. In the newly formed State Security and Peace Commission, he became a joint executive, and he continues to hold the position of Chief of Military Security Affairs. He even had his son, Thet Ye Naung, attend basic recruit training under the Conscription Law and enlisted him as a private in the military. Although he is a close confidante of the coup leader, it is unlikely that he will be appointed as the new commander-in-chief by bypassing the Defense Services Academy graduates who hold most of the top positions in the military.

The last general is Gen. Kyaw Swar Lin, registration number Army-25074. He is a graduate of Defense Services Academy (DSA) Intake 35 and served as personal staff officer to Vice Snr. Gen. Maung Aye during the former junta SLORC/SPDC era. He mostly worked around the War Office and served as Chief of Staff of the Army and Commander of Military Operation Command No. 6 (MOC-6) based in Naypyitaw. From his role as commander of the Central Region Command (MOC), he was appointed as Quartermaster General in 2020 during the COVID period before the coup. In other words, he became a Lt. Gen. by jumping over more senior brass. During the coup period, in addition to Quartermaster General, he also took on the concurrent role of Chief of Staff (Army) when Lt. Gen. Moe Myint Tun was charged with bribery. On December 18, 2024, after Gen. Maung Maung Aye was removed from his military position as Joint Chief of General Staff (Army, Navy, and Air Force), he was appointed to that role and promoted to full general. Looking back at the 2010 context, the current coup leader, Snr. Gen. Min Aung Hlaing also rose from Joint Chief of General Staff (Army, Navy, and Air Force) to commander-in-chief after the elections, so Gen. Kyaw Swar Lin is also being predicted as a potential commander-in-chief. Because he is included as a member of the newly formed State Security and Peace Commission and has been prominently featured on foreign trips, he is currently seen as the most likely candidate for the new commander-in-chief.

Along with these assumptions, there are also predictions about who will hold the top military positions after the elections. Along with the changes among generals on July 31, 2025, some Lt. Gens also underwent changes. Lt. Gen. Soe Min Oo, the Adjutant General, asked to retire from his military position to lead the chairman of the Union Civil Service Board. In his place, the senior Lt. Gen. Phone Myat (OTS-73), who was commander of Bureau of Special Operations No.5 (BSO-5) and did not get a position at the time of the coup, was appointed. For his BSO-5 commander position, Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Latt (DSA-37), commander of the Eastern Region Command, who led the operation to recapture Moebye Town, was appointed. The commander position for Eastern Region Command was filled by Brig. Gen. Naing Zaw Latt (OTC-25), principal of the Army Combat Training School (Ba Htoo) in Lawksawk.

In addition, based on recent presumptions, the lt. Gens. who could become important include: BSO-1 Commander Lt. Gen. Ko Ko Oo (DSA-38), BSO-2 Commander Lt. Gen. Naing Naing Oo (DSA-35), the newly appointed BSO-5 Commander Maj. Gen. Zaw Min Latt (DSA-37), and Chief of Staff (Army) Lt. Gen. Than Htike (DSA-38). There are also predictions that one of the senior lt. Gens. could still remain in a top position. The coup leader has appointed up to six Officer Training Corps (OTC) graduates to regional commander positions, which could lead to Lt. Gen. rank. Therefore, in a sense, the fourth-generation Tatmadaw could be led by senior officers from DSA-35 to DSA-42 and OTC-23 to 25. However, because the coup leader tends to do unexpected things and prioritizes loyalty over competence, it is certain that many unexpected changes in military positions will occur before and after the elections organized by the State Security and Peace Commission.

Swedaw is a military officer and a graduate of the Defense Services Academy who joined the Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) after the 2021 military coup and has been writing articles on military and political affairs.

The views and opinions expressed here do not necessarily reflect the policies or positions of ISP-Myanmar.