China Studies | ISP-Myanmar

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China Studies

issue:OP2026-05,

2 Jul 2026

ISP OnPoint

Between Two Giants: How China and India Maneuver in Myanmar for Security, Economy and Influence

The Min Aung Hlaing administration is increasingly looking to New Delhi for political and military leverage, even as it remains tethered to Beijing’s inescapable influence.

issue:M2026-016,

10 May 2026

Mapping

Myanmar-China Border Trade Under MNDAA Control

The Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) now controls most of the key Myanmar–China trade routes, border gates, and economic hubs.

issue:M2026-015,

9 May 2026

Mapping

KNA Controls Key Locations of Myanmar-Thailand Border Trade

The Karen National Army (KNA) controls crucial locations for Myanmar-Thailand border trade in Karen State. However, alternative trade routes such as the Htawtkawkoe route, Kyat Ou Taung route and Road 1018 are shared and controlled by the KNA along with other Karen armed groups.

issue:M2026-014,

9 May 2026

Mapping

Six Refugee Camps Bordering Karen State

Nine refugee camps are situated along the Myanmar-Thailand border, six of which fall within the stretch bordering Karen State.

issue:M2026-013,

9 May 2026

Mapping

The KNU Controls 37 Percent of the Myanmar-Thailand Border Line

Since the 2021 coup, the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army (KNU/KNLA) has focused primarily on expanding control along the Myanmar-Thailand border rather than pushing deeper into the mainland.

issue:M2026-012,

9 May 2026

Mapping

Fragmentation of Armed Group-Backed Kyar Phyant Scam Syndicates

Following the crackdown on KK Park, Kyar Phyant (online scam) syndicates have splintered into smaller networks.

issue:M2026-011,

9 May 2026

Mapping

Clashes and Airstrikes Along Karen State’s Trade Routes

In 2024 and 2025, the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) and the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army (KNU/KNLA)fought for control of major trade routes in Karen State.

issue:M2026-010,

9 May 2026

Mapping

Junta Regains Control of Major Trade Routes

In September 2025, the State Security and Peace Commission (SSPC) recaptured Asian Highway No. 1 from the Karen National Union/Karen National Liberation Army (KNU/KNLA).

issue:M2026-004,

9 Feb 2026

Mapping

KNA Controls Critical Border Trade Routes

The KNA has dispersed its forces across strategic positions in Myawaddy township, from Thin Gan Nyi Naung village to Shwe Kokko Myaing.

issue:PCET2026-02,

6 Feb 2026

Tracker

Karen State’s Conflict Economy and KNA’s Rebranding

As crackdowns on Kyar Phyant online scam networks widen, the KNA’s changes became a notable inflection point in Karen State’s increasingly entangled conflict economy.

issue:SoM2026,

31 Jan 2026

State of Myanmar

The State of Myanmar: ISP–Myanmar’s Annual Strategic Review and Foresight 2025–2026

Domestic and international actors seeking a change toward federal democracy in Myanmar must now think strategically and prepare to act on three trends in 2026: the post-election landscape where the role of the fourth generation Tatmadaw becomes more prominent, the prospects for conflict de-escalation or ceasefires, and how to engage with eminent China’s role in Myanmar politics.

issue:M2026-002,

31 Jan 2026

Mapping

75 New Scam Centers Detected

This period saw a significant geographic shift, with many syndicates relocating from the Myanmar-China border to central Shan State and major urban centers, including Yangon and Mandalay.