The MNDAA would likely desire China’s guarantees and its capacity to monitor and mediate. If the Myanmar junta accepts this arrangement (orderly return of an occupied territory without a fight) managed by a superpower neighbor, it could be interpreted as an unprecedented approach in Myanmar’s conflict management: subcontracting sovereignty to an external actor, China.

When discussing earthquake disaster relief, it is crucial to follow the scientific and humanitarian experts and practitioners. In this On Point, ISP-Myanmar focuses on analysing the potential political aftershocks that could follow the immediate emergency relief.

Conflict de-escalation based on the sharing of war dividends among conflict parties may provide temporary respite. However, without progressing to meaningful political negotiations, it could simply delay and worsen the underlying conflict. Without considering the political economy of Myanmar’s conflict, a resolution to the crisis is unlikely.

Following the major “Mandalay-Sagaing Earthquake,” the State Administration Council (SAC) has carried out at least 741 airstrikes across the country.

Since the coup, Myanmar has witnessed at least 80 incidents of civilian massacres, including mass killings by the SAC’s airstrikes in Otein Twin village, Tabayin Township, Sagaing Region, on May 12, and Htun Ya Wai village, Rathedaung Township, Rakhine State, on May 13, 2025.

Following the Mandalay-Sagaing Earthquake, the State Administration Council (SAC) has launched at least 160 aerial strikes, while 47 percent of these attacks occurred after the SAC announced a temporary ceasefire.

(This article is an abridged translation of the original Burmese language version that Institute for Strategy and Policy -Myanmar posted on its Facebook page on August 30, 2021.)  Summary The upcoming visit by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Special Envoy is a key political event for both the State Administration Council (SAC) and the National […]

Only if everyone comes together to solve the pandemic that Myanmar is currently facing will the country be able to lessen the physical and mental trauma that will be experienced for generations. Humanitarian crises could stem from politics or could become worse because of politics. Therefore, the solution to the humanitarian crisis should eventually transition from a humanitarian emergency to more sustained solutions for the political crisis. Good examples of humanitarian response can be seen in Aceh after the 2004 tsunami and in Nepal after 2015 earthquake. Even if political solutions cannot be found immediately, all stakeholders should follow the recommendations mentioned above quickly since these will provide major support in saving people’s lives during the COVID-19 third wave in Myanmar.