Conflict, Peace & Security ‣ ISP-Myanmar

issue:OP2026-06,

9 Oct 2026

ISP OnPoint

Myanmar Military’s Offensive on Rakhine: Preliminary Analysis and Three Scenarios

Clashes in Rakhine State appear to be taking the shape of a total war, diverging from conflict dynamics in other regions and carrying a higher risk of atrocities. The Rakhine front is critical to the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) for both strategic and prestige reasons. Consequently, the MAF is launching a massive offensive with thousands of troops to recapture territory controlled by the Arakan Army (ULA/AA).

Analysis of Conflict Economy – Northern Shan State

In northern Shan State, China has pushed for a ceasefire between the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) and Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs), using considerable leverage to ensure stability along its border, and has introduced a program to reduce the conflict through economic incentives, trade, commerce, and investment.

Where Might Meets Duty – The United League of Arakan: Beyond Governance and Territorial Control

Institutional strengthening in ULA/AA’s governance was observed in some sectors but challenges still remain. Conflict, resource scarcity and capacity limitations still pose as critical limitations in delivering public services. The most imminent challenge is to manage the potential gap between the capacity and the Rakhine public’s high expectations.

MAF’s Offensives Expand into FDI Territories

After Min Aung Hlaing assumed the presidency, the Myanmar Armed Forces (MAF) have launched targeted operations to regain control of certain territories. They especially target areas where foreign investment projects are located. Consequently, armed conflict is expected to intensify in resistance-held territories that host foreign investment projects and resource extraction operations.